The Construction Economist — September 20, 2026

The first rate hike since 2023 · The 2027 dot moves half a point · Input prices up 8.9% · Builder confidence falls to 32 · EPA guts power-plant carbon rules

Top News

The Fed raises rates a quarter point to 3.75%–4%, its first hike since 2023 Federal Reserve · ~2 min read

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 12-0 on Sept. 16 to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by a quarter point to 3.75% to 4%. The Committee said economic activity is expanding at a solid pace and that inflation remains elevated, and that the action "will support a timelier return to the Committee's 2 percent goal." The Board of Governors raised the interest rate on reserve balances to 3.90% and the primary credit rate to 4.0%, both effective Sept. 17; in the same meeting's projections, the median participant put the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of both 2026 and 2027, up from 3.8% and 3.6% in June.

What it means: The 25 basis points matter less than they look — most commercial work prices off the 10-year Treasury rather than the overnight rate, and a hike the bond market finds credible can pull the long end down. The path is the story: the median participant saw 3.6% in 2027 back in June and now sees 4.1%, half a point added to the cost of capital in three months, against input prices already 8.9% above last August. Floating-rate debt and any pro forma still on the edge feel it first; data centers and chip fabs, funded largely off corporate cash, barely will.

Construction input prices jump 1.2% in August and are 8.9% above a year ago Associated Builders and Contractors · ~3 min read

Construction input prices rose 1.2% in August and stand 8.9% above August 2025, according to Associated Builders and Contractors' (ABC) analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index data released Sept. 10. Crude petroleum is up 34.9% year over year, copper wire 27.2%, steel mill products 23.4%, iron and steel 17.9% and switchgear 12.3%. ABC chief economist Anirban Basu said ongoing input price escalation "is likely to weigh on profitability over the next several months," citing the trade war with Canada and oil back above $100 per barrel.

Builder confidence falls three points to 32 in September NAHB · ~2 min read

Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 32 in September on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) attributed the decline to higher mortgage rates, worsening labor shortages and rising material costs. Buyer traffic weakened across much of the country.

Project Finance & Economics

55% of contractors report a project canceled, postponed or scaled back Associated General Contractors of America · ~3 min read

More than half of contractors — 55% — reported having projects canceled, postponed or scaled back in the past six months, according to a September survey by the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC). One-third of respondents attributed those disruptions to rising costs, 13% to lengthening or uncertain completion times, 10% to tariff-driven changes in demand and 6% to demand changes tied to the Middle East conflict. AGC chief economist Ken Simonson said cost increases are "a major reason project owners are cancelling, postponing or scaling back projects."

Policy, Codes & Regulation

Feds Nix Carbon Emissions Standards for Coal- and Gas-Fired Power Plants ENR · ~4 min read

The Environmental Protection Agency issued a final rule repealing the 2024 greenhouse gas emissions standards for coal- and gas-fired power plants, removing nearly all current carbon emissions requirements for the sector. A separate rulemaking proposes to remove the remaining pollution control standards. The American Iron and Steel Institute issued a statement supporting the repeal.

Las Vegas high-speed rail project may hinge on $6B federal loan Smart Cities Dive · ~3 min read

Brightline's passenger rail projects in Florida and California have not made required equity and bond payments, raising questions about whether the Las Vegas–to–Southern California line can proceed without new financing. The project's path forward may depend on a $6 billion federal loan.

Labor & Workforce

Women's Share of Construction Workforce Reaches 20-Year High NAHB · ~2 min read

Women accounted for 11.3% of the construction workforce in 2025, the highest share in 20 years, according to Current Population Survey data. The number of women employed in the industry rose to roughly 1.37 million.

Tech & Tools

Autodesk confirms Forma will replace Revit 'over time' AEC Magazine · ~4 min read

Autodesk has confirmed that its Forma platform will replace Revit over time, with progressively more of the work currently done in Revit moving into Forma directly. The company did not give a date for the transition.

The Construction Economist — What's Moving Construction? The Economic Look-Ahead.