The Construction Economist — June 26, 2026

Architecture billings sink to 44.5, the lowest since January · Microsoft and Chevron plan a 2GW West Texas data center · Trump blocks the Road to Housing Act · Steel imports jump 11.2% · the Bills open a $2.1B stadium

Top News

Architecture billings sink to 44.5 in May, the lowest reading since January

AIA/Deltek · ~3 min read

The Architecture Billings Index (ABI), published by the American Institute of Architects (AIA) and Deltek, fell to 44.5 in May — its lowest level since January — as economic uncertainty weighed on the design sector. Any score below 50 signals declining billings at U.S. architecture firms; alongside it, the project inquiries index slipped to 49.4, below 50 for the first time in four months, and the value of newly signed design contracts fell to 45.0, also a low since January. AIA chief economist Richard Branch tied the softening to the Iran conflict and higher energy costs, on top of elevated interest rates, rising material costs, and continued labor shortages.

What it means: The ABI is construction's clearest forward look, and the signal this month isn't one number — it's that all three of architecture's front-end gauges are below 50 at once. Read them as a pipeline: inquiries are the first knock on the door, design contracts are the moment an owner commits money to drawings, and billings are the architect actually at work — each stage feeds the next. Architecture billings lead nonresidential construction starts by roughly nine to twelve months, so a front end contracting across all three stages now points to thinner nonresidential starts heading into 2027 — even while contractors keep drawing down the near-record backlog already in hand. Watch the next two prints: one soft month is summer noise; three is a turn.

Trump blocks Road to Housing Act after it passes Congress

Smart Cities Dive · ~3 min read

The Road to Housing Act, which cleared Congress with backing from municipal leaders seeking federal action on the housing crisis, has stalled at the President's desk. President Trump said he will not sign the bill until Congress approves an overhaul of election law, according to Smart Cities Dive.

Materials & Supply Chain

Steel imports rose 11.2% in May versus April

American Iron & Steel Institute (AISI) · ~2 min read

The U.S. imported 2.12 million net tons of steel in May 2026, including 1.55 million net tons of finished steel — both up 11.2% from April — the American Iron and Steel Institute (AISI) reported from preliminary Census Bureau data. The monthly jump ran against the longer trend: total and finished imports are still down roughly 26% year to date versus 2025, and finished import market share held at 16% YTD. Among the products posting the biggest May gains were construction-relevant lines — reinforcing bars (up 21%) and, over the trailing 12 months, heavy structural shapes (up 21%).

What it means: One hot month doesn't reverse a year of shrinking imports, but watch the mix. Domestic mills are running near 80% of capacity with output up about 10% year over year, yet rebar and structural-shape imports are climbing — the long-lead items that frame and reinforce big jobs. As data-center and megaproject demand concentrates on the same finite domestic capacity and a trade-thinned import channel, structural steel is the line most likely to stretch on lead time and price. Worth tracking month to month as a forward cost-and-schedule risk, not yet a headline.

Project Finance & Economics

Dallas Fed projects Texas jobs to grow 1.8% in 2026

Dallas Fed — Texas Economic Update · ~2 min read

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas forecasts that Texas employment will increase 1.8% in 2026, with an 80% confidence band running from 1.2% to 2.4%. The state remains a bellwether for construction labor demand, drawing contractors and trades to its industrial, residential, and data-center build-out.

Policy, Codes & Regulation

Congress takes up the 2027 defense construction bill

AGC News · ~2 min read

Congress has begun considering the National Defense Authorization Act of 2027 (NDAA 2027), which sets military construction authorization and policy. The House Armed Services Committee advanced its version by a 44-12 vote on June 5, and the Senate Armed Services Committee passed its version 18-9 on June 10, according to the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC).

Owner Moves

Gilbane-Turner joint venture hands off $2.1B Buffalo Bills stadium

Construction Dive · ~2 min read

A Gilbane-Turner joint venture has delivered the Buffalo Bills' new $2.1 billion stadium and turned it over to the team ahead of the season. About 6,000 craft workers logged nearly 5 million hours over the roughly three-year build of the 60,000-seat venue, according to Construction Dive.

Microsoft plans a 2GW data center campus in Pecos, Texas, powered by Chevron gas

Data Center Dynamics · ~3 min read

Microsoft plans a 2-gigawatt, multibillion-dollar data center campus near Pecos in West Texas — "Project Kilby" — built out over the next five to seven years, according to Data Center Dynamics. A co-located natural gas plant developed by Chevron subsidiary Energy Forge One with investment firm Engine No. 1 will supply up to 2.67 GW behind the meter under a 20-year power purchase agreement, with first power targeted for 2028. Chevron projects more than $10 billion in state and local tax revenue, and the project is expected to support about 6,000 construction jobs at full buildout.

The Construction Economist — What's Moving Construction? The Economic Look-Ahead.